Gene Morphis ' View

Doug Kass of Seabreeze Investment Management said on Kudlow (CNBC) a few nights ago that his pick for a surprise was a rebound in housing starting this fall. Generally, I've found that Kass is a pretty good trend reader. But Gene Epstein , also very good, has a long piece in the latest Barron's which basically says that demography is against a housing rebound for the next five years.... While this kind of conflict makes it tough for regular investors to take a position, the worst is that they could both be wrong... Related articles by Zemanta Doug Kass: Market Has Made Low For Year, This is The Bottom (wallstreetpit.com)

Thanks to Amesome, Inc for the new template! Gorgeous! So, truth in advertising, I didn't design this cool wireframe, some pros did it...

This sad episode was reprised on all the Sunday current event talk shows. I thought we had moved passed all this kind of nonsense. But it is still possible to call someone racist and trigger both predictable and surprising responses. Just one thing I would recommend to the news organizations: when you are looking for someone to comment, don't dust off Jesse Jackson. If you are looking for a minister, let me give you another choice: T.D. Jakes. Related articles by Zemanta Heartwarming Racist Sherrie Sherrod: Andrew Breitbart Would Like To Put All Blacks Back Into Slavery (minx.cc)

My little falling-out with JP Morgan Chase continues. In the last segment, I had put my Chase credit card away, because, I was put on credit hold/fraud alert because of a $7 charge I made. Details: the card is a United Airlines affinity card - e.g. the user gets United Airline mile credit, and the charge was for one of those little box lunches on a United Airlines flight . Seemed like a little much to me. Since I'm a JPM shareholder, and I think Jamie Dimon, JPM CEO, has done a great job, I dropped a note saying that it would seem to me that their fraud procedures ought to undergo a review; it doesn't seem too logical to me to put an alert on a frequent flyer using his frequent flyer credit card on a flight. Anyway, I just received a customer service scorecard, asking if my problem had been satisfactorily resolved, signed by Chip somebody or other. Well, no Chip: no one did anything; I never heard from anyone until I got your survery...

Double dip recessions are rare things. Even a slowdown immediately after a recession is unusual. But job creation coming out of this one is painfully slow. While there are lots of reasons, here is a key one. Historically, housing got creamed in a recession. Interest rates rose going in, choking off housing activity. Then interest rates were cut, housing gradually recovered and helped employment. A lot. Think of how many skilled trades are involved in building a house. Plumbers. Electricians. Carpenters. Cabinet installers. Roofers. Landscapers. Wallboard hangers. Carpet layers. Tile layers. Bricklayers. Concrete finishers. Then there are the manufacturers and suppliers of pipe, kitchen and bath faucets, lighting fixtures, roofing shingles, lumber, toilets, sinks carpet, concrete, bricks,conduit, circuit boxes, windows, doors, insulation, air conditioners, water heaters and so on. Well, in this recession there is no housing rebound, so the millions of local trade workers and manufacturi...

Thanks to Don Mills, I'm trying some new smokes, and so far they are all fabulous. Just finished a Perdomo Reserve 10th Anniversary in the Champagne wrapper. While I enjoy an occasional powerhouse like the Fuente Opus, generally my tastes run to the milder end of the spectrum. This new Perdomo Champagne absolutely fills the bill. When I finished smoking it, I immediately went online to check the box price. If you are in Memphis/Germantown, check out the Tobacco Superstore and tell Don I sent you for a little extra special deal.

Had a Rocky Patel Sun Grown blend cigar. It was a gift, so I'm not exactly sure what size it was; somewhat smaller than one normally expects from a Churchill. Absolutely delicious. It has become one of my all-time favorites. I smoked it and sipped a glass of Sterling Merlot for a very relaxing evening. Burned completely perfectly from light to finish. Drew smoothly. Good taste throughout. All complete winner and 100% recommendation.

Look, President Bush didn't deserve the opprobrium he received over the response to Hurricane Katrina, and President Obama doesn't deserve the bad rap he's gotten over the Gulf oil well blowout. He's not a chemical engineer or a trained submersible operator. He can't fix the problem. Cut him some slack.

We attended the funeral service of Gene Grace yesterday. Gene was a gentle man, who moved easily among individuals from all walks of life. He was a skilled craftsman, making and restoring furniture or anything made of wood. He leaves a wife and a large family behind. He was a Mason, and honored that tradition with a Masonic graveside service. If I have ever witnessed one before, I don't recall it. The speaker recited the Masonic words, which reminded me of Shakespeare. First, because the language and wording is elegant,purposeful and poignant. Second, because it was a singularly long soliloquy. If the presenter missed even one word, it was undetectable, and I sincerely doubt that he did miss a word - he was flawless with not so much as a single "ah". I'm sure Mr. Grace was proud. RIP Gene Grace

Twenty-one years ago, two professors Pons & Fleishmann, announced that they had created some kind of nuclear reaction, but at low tempature. It caused a world-wide reaction. This is the promise of endless cheap power. The stuff that powers sci-fi spaceships and even planets. Unfortunately, other labs had difficulty reproducing the results, there were all kinds of accusations, and the professors went on to different things (I've lost track). I guess these scientists can be much more vicious than I would have known; look at the climategate email string of scientists who were ready to off guys with an opposing viewpoint). Anyway, it turns out that some labs and scientists around the world have continued to work on this, and it looks like something real was happening. Perhaps something at the quantum level, where the normal world vanishes and even Einstein was puzzled. On my permalinks is to lens-cagr where developments are reported. I periodically check in to see what is ne...

I've been wondering whether we should start a movement to vote out all the incumbents and start fresh. New Congressmen and Congresswomen with no ties to lobbyests and new viewpoints. I could get excited about Representatives who are MD's, CPA's, engineers, math professors, economists, programmers...basically anyone who understands math or science. Clearly the current crowd is math challenged and incapable of getting tax reciepts and spending within the nearest trillion or so. I don't know, maybe engineers and programmers are too logical to subject themselves to the election process. But I'm going to continue to wonder about it.

Just received one of those bogus surveys from the fundraisers. This one has a cover letter from Senator John Cornyn, who I generally believe to be a good guy. The survey is designed to infuriate (in this case conservatives; I'm sure the Dems have a version too) with questions like "I do not believe our healthcare system should be socialized". These things must work, or they wouldn't keep sending them. I sent the good Senator a reply, noting that I'll resume making contributions when the Republicans take a "no earmarks" pledge. (Sadly, I've given up on either party being willing to make the tough decisions to actually balance the budget).

We've been treated a shocking level of incompetence and ignorance, as a ranking Member of Congress bloviated about the tax -related writedowns that companies just took. Companies offering health care to retirees and others that qualified for a tax credit are required to adjust the carrying value of tax assets and liabilities when the law changes. Congressman Henry Waxman (D. CA), showed his ignorance of the SEC rules and ineptness at finding out how the process works. If you are Waxman, wouldn't it be easy to wander over to the room where the committee that budgets the SEC meets, and do a little checking? Presumably not, one being consumed with the task of summoning those miscreant corporate officers in for a major public humiliation. Or,couldn't you have a staffer call the SEC? I mean, it is a government agency after all. If you've ever read an 8K (which is the document these companies are legally required to file within days of such an event) or a 10Q or 10K, you...

In the company I work for, we've been cutting costs for two years. No one has received a raise since early in 2008. Bonuses went to zero. We fly coach. Recently, travellers from the east to west coast have taken some one-stop or plane changes to be more thrifty. We are staying in Hampton Inns. We haven't seen a 401(k) match in a long time. I don't say this to draw sympathy. Many companies are in the same boat, and people are generally happy to have a job. But apparently it is high tide and green grass at the RNC. I used to send them the occasional contribution. Lately, I've been sending a note back for every solicitation I send asking candidates to take a "no earmarks" pledge. I've given up on fiscal sanity and a balanced budget, and would now settle for our elected representatives to just stop abusing us. Now it has come out that RNC folks hang out in expensive strip joints, fly on private jets and take limo's. Fine if it is on your dime, but don'...

My recommendation for all conservatives is that when the President does something right, he should get commendation from our side. In my view, he has been on a hot streak: visiting the troops in Afghanistan, opening up some coast line to drilling and talking up nuclear power. Former President Bush could have opened up the coast line seven or eight years ago - and we would be getting some of that oil right now. Good job Mr. President.

I believe that the U.S. must get serious about construction of nuclear power plants. The electric car is real, and the batteries must be charged somehow. Dependence on foreign oil must be reduced. And we need some jobs. All of that speaks to building nuclear power plants. President Obama deserves high praise for extending credit to The Southern Company to construct additional nuclear plants. But, accompanying news is that it will take the NRC 12-18 months to approve the plans. That is silly. What are they doing now? Can't be many blueprints of proposed plants waiting on review. I wrote Senator Casey a letter, recommending that he get the NRC in a hearing room and tell them they've got a month to approve it. Here is his reply: Dear Mr. Morphis: Thank you for taking the time to contact me with your views on nuclear energy. I appreciate hearing from all Pennsylvanians about the issues that matter most to them. The United States currently generates around 20% of its electricity fro...

Congratulations on a game well-played and executed with skill. And to acting with class when you one. Despite the luge incident, I think the Vancouver Olympics were well run and highly entertaining. Nice job to our Northern neighbors.

Thomas Frank wrote a piece in the Wall St Journal Wednesday with that title. His answer: they embraced globalization, which enabled companies to outsource/offshore all the good union jobs, crushing the Democratic Party's core union/workingman membership. Interesting theory, but I believe it is off the mark. When I grew up in the South, the Democrats were clearly the party of the workingman. John Kennedy, stumping for votes in West Virginia coal mining country. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, creating the National Labor Relations Board, etc. Republicans were the party of John Lindsay, Nelson Rockefeller and Preston Bush. Wealthy country club members with Ivy League education. So I share Mr. Frank's point of view of the origins. But not of the cause of the detour. The Democratic leadership have converted en masse to the Religion of Environmentalim. As a result, they willingly sell out workers to (possibly) preserve some life form we would otherwise have no interest in protecti...

Score one for President Obama for stepping up and offering a multi-billion dollar loan to Southern Co.s to build a nuclear power plant. I believe: 1) it is crazy that we are as dependent on offshore oil as we are; 2) Tesla has proved that Americans will buy an electric car if it is cool; therefore 3) we will need a lot more electricity. I'm sure this is not popular with a lot of his core constituincy. It is a long-overdue move, and one that former President Bush never stepped up to. When the opposition makes the right move, we should commend them on it. Good move Mr. President.

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