Skip to main content

Wal*Mart Breakout?

As you'll see on the chart link, Wal*Mart has been in a trading range for years. I've been a long-time holder of Wal*Mart - which hasn't be rewarding in a long time. During the years that Wal*Mart stock has been stuck, it has added dozens of billions in revenue and opened hundreds of stores in China.

Obviously, like most companies, it was overvalued in 2000, but while some have recovered to 2000 levels, Wal*Mart still trails.

The first chart shows the trading pattern with a defined trading channel....actually enough to short at $50 and cover in the lower 40's....the question is did the company breakout over the last few days? The penetration of $50 was done on good volume (note on the lower part of the chart) - an excellent technical indicator. From a fundie viewpoint, the company report positive - if small - same store sales for the Dec. and Jan. time periods while arch-rival Target was negative. And some old retail contacts tell me that Target store managers are under intense pressureto reduce store hours.....

But I'm still not prepared to call it a stock breakout just yet....

Comments

Anonymous said…
Hello. This post is likeable, and your blog is very interesting, congratulations :-). I will add in my blogroll =). If possible gives a last there on my blog, it is about the Wireless, I hope you enjoy. The address is http://wireless-brasil.blogspot.com. A hug.

Popular posts from this blog

Stimulus Plan

Mr. President: The House stimulus bill is awful. Dangerous. Counter-productive. It has a very high probability of making things worse!. Your man Rahm Emanuel is supposed to be a tough guy: turn him loose on the House Dems - they are selling you down the river. Some simple tests: the spending will improve long-term productivity; the spending will reduce our dependence on foreign oil, and the spending will happen fast; very, very fast. There may need to be some legislation to enable spending without years of environmental review. For example, spending on wind farms would improve long-run productivity and reduce dependence on foreign oil. But let's say the wind farm is a couple of miles offshore. You can't have environmental groups stopping the development to see if some fish will be harmed. This spending has to happen now. And, no tax cuts with the possible exception of AMT. People aren't going to spend any tax savings; they are going to pay their credit card bills or r...

No Steve No

To:Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer: Please, please don't spend my money on Yahoo. Spend $4 billion per year for the next 10 years building something new and better. This has to now be an ego deal, not an economic deal. If you withdraw the bid, YHOO is a $15 stock. You are too smart for this. Many times the best deals are the ones you don't make. This is one of those times. Don't spend my money on this. Sincerely, gene

So Who Wins?

Every recession plants the seeds for economic advantage in the future recovery. In the very tough 1973-1974 recession, prices fell so low that it enabled the creation of the leveraged buyout industry. With many manufacturing companies in particular trading at 3-4 times cash flow, new market entrants like KKR, Forstmann Little and Dyson Kisner Moran came in and created gigantic wealth for themselves and early investors. In the 1991-1992 downturn, engendered in part by the massive office space overbuilding funded by Savings and Loans (Resolution Trust Co, anyone?) made it possible for telcom and internet start-ups in Austin, San Jose, Northern VA, Boston's Route 128, Dallas, etc. to rent offices at a fraction of the cost had those communities not been overbuilt. And the 2001-02 downturn gave us cheap fiber and bandwidth, and bargain-priced software to feed productivity gains in corporations everywhere. So, where is the upside? At this moment, all that I can project with some confid...