Skip to main content

Handicapping the Presidency

The Congressional elections have now all been decided, and the race for the 2008 Presidency is in full swing. This is a seriously crowded field. Here are my early thoughts.

On the Republican side, there are at least six candidates.

Govenor Mitt Romney. Smart. Amazingly telegenic. Squeaky clean. A very rich, very smart capitalist (a co-founder of Bain Capital). Anti-abortion views will appeal to the religious conservatives, fiscal policy is likely to appeal to deficit hawks. Experience however, is rather light. Somewhat of a long shot.

Senator John McCain. Experienced, war hero, author; he owns the stateman position. We must assume he is the front runner, and has a legitimate claim to the centrist/moderate position. Age and temper may work against him, although he does seem to have mellowed a little in the last few years. Not the favorite of either the fiscal hawks or the religious right.

America's Mayor Rudy Guilani. Exhibited leadership after Sept. 11 that no one forsaw. Messy divorce and pro-abortion position will alienate the religious right. However, if the Democratic candidate is Senator Clinton, the Republican leadership might conclude to treat the religious right as a given; assuming that they would find Satan attractive compared to Hil. A big hit on the fund raising circuit. If nominated, I think he would win - great debater.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich. There are two great political minds in the U.S today - Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich. The thinking man's conservative; a fountain of ideas. A real concept of foreign policy, which has been non-existent in American political life since the Nixon administration. However, he was a complete lighting rod for the left for a decade. A Newt candidacy would probably create the biggest Democratic fundraising ever. He too had an ugly divorce. Long shot for nomination, longer shot for election.

Senator Chuck Hagel. Even though he is a second term senator, a successful businessman and a decorated Vietnam veteran, I don't think he is that well known. Probably would be a good President, but I'm calling this one a long shot.

Representative Duncan Hunter. Duncan: I saw that you had formed an exploratory committee. Who are you?

The Democrats have even more candidates.
Senator Hillary Clinton. Husband is a politicial genius. Has already assembled the best team. And has already raised a lot of money. Smart. Great experience - let's face it - she's lived in the White House. A fund-raising machine. But, would fill Republican coffers like no one else. Both the nomination and the election are hers to lose.

Senator Joe Biden. Colorful. Great overall and foreign policy experience. Would probably make a really good, centrist President, but will struggle to catch Hil, or to learn to speak in concise, cogent sentences.

Former VP Al Gore. The Dem's big idea guy. A Nixonian comeback? He did, after all, win the popular vote. Presumably learned a lot, including perhaps some humility, from the loss in 2000. Environmentalism as the new religion will play well in liberal land. Another extremely well-quailified guy. If Hil stumbles, I think he emerges as the go-to guy.

Senator John Kerry. His friends say that he has a great sense of humor. It just doesn't show through. Americans aren't going to vote for someone they see as humorless. I don't think he gets the nomination, and I don't think he could beat McCain or Guiliani.

Former Senator John Edwards. Trial lawyer skills show on the campaign trail. Telegenic. However, seems to be lightweight. A long shot.

Senator Chris Dodd. Skilled politico. Chairmanship of the party taught him good debating and presenting skills. Would need to take a page from W's play book on how to put a party boy reputation behind him. Outside of those of us who watch Fox Sunday News, Meet the Press and Face the Nation, not sure how well known he is even after years in the senate.

Senator Barak Obama. Great story; great looking, good speaker, too soon.

My early call: Romney vs. Clinton - Clinton as the first woman President.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Book Review: What Matters Now by Gary Hamel

Interview of Eric Schmidt by Gary Hamel at the MLab dinner tonight. Google's Marissa Mayer and Hal Varian also joined the open dialog about Google's culture and management style, from chaos to arrogance. The video just went up on YouTube. It's quite entertaining. (Photo credit: Wikipedia ) Cover of The Future of Management My list of must-read business writers continues to expand.   Gary Hamel , however, author of What Matters Now , with the very long subtitle of How to Win in a World of Relentless Change, Ferocious Competition, and Unstoppable Innovation , has been on the list for quite some time.   Continuing his thesis on the need for a new approach to management introduced in his prior book The Future of Management , Hamel calls for a complete rethinking of how enterprises are run. Fundamental to his recommendation is that the practice of management is ossified in a command and control system that is now generations old and needs to be replaced with somethi

Manage Your Blood Pressure While Young to Have a Big Healthy Brain Later

Anatomy Refresher The brain accounts for around 2 percent of body weight but gets as much as twenty percent of blood pumped by the heart. There are about 370 miles of tiny “microvessels” in the brain. Those vessels deliver oxygen and nutrients throughout the brain. Blood Pressure and Brain Health Two recently-released studies reveal the importance of blood pressure management to brain health. More importantly, the researchers discovered the importance of managing blood pressure in one’s forties, or even younger. Dr. Matthew Pase, PhD, and Research Fellow in Neurology at the University of Boston School of Medicine, and Dr. Charles DeCarli, Professor of Neurology at the University of California Davis, presented a paper at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in July. (We’ve mentioned Pase in previous newsletters and posts. He used the highly-regarded Framingham Heart Study to produce the now famous, and famously disconcerting, study on the deleterious affe

Researchers Say Do This to Make Your Brain 10 Years Younger

Do your parents or grandparents keep a pot of coffee brewing all day? Do they spend the morning sipping a cup of coffee while working Jumble and the crossword puzzle in the newspaper? “Just because there is no evidence that it works doesn’t mean that it doesn’t work. It just means that no one has paid for research to determine whether or not it works.” That was my response to one of the earliest subscribers to our newsletter. He is fond of crossword puzzles and was hopeful that solving them would help build cognitive reserve. At that point we hadn’t seen any research that indicated that word puzzles were useful. Guess what: our subscriber and your family members are on to something. There now is research to support that individuals regularly working puzzles are building some serious brain strength. Crossword Puzzles and Fast Brains Here’s a quote from Professor Keith Wesnes at the University of Exeter Medical School: “We found direct relationships between the frequency