Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Wal*Mart Breakout?

As you'll see on the chart link, Wal*Mart has been in a trading range for years. I've been a long-time holder of Wal*Mart - which hasn't be rewarding in a long time. During the years that Wal*Mart stock has been stuck, it has added dozens of billions in revenue and opened hundreds of stores in China.

Obviously, like most companies, it was overvalued in 2000, but while some have recovered to 2000 levels, Wal*Mart still trails.

The first chart shows the trading pattern with a defined trading channel....actually enough to short at $50 and cover in the lower 40's....the question is did the company breakout over the last few days? The penetration of $50 was done on good volume (note on the lower part of the chart) - an excellent technical indicator. From a fundie viewpoint, the company report positive - if small - same store sales for the Dec. and Jan. time periods while arch-rival Target was negative. And some old retail contacts tell me that Target store managers are under intense pressureto reduce store hours.....

But I'm still not prepared to call it a stock breakout just yet....

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