Louise Yamada is the doyenne of technical sotck analysts. She was recently on Bloomberg (available on the Bloomberg site) and fundamentally (ok - it is a pun) said that we are in a 13-16 year bear market. If I had followed Ms. Yamada's advice a few years ago, I would be a much richer man today.
I recommend that you watch the video.
I'm switching my 401(k) contributions to cash and near-cash investments until she declares the sructural bear market over.