Mr. Ballmer:
As a long-time shareholder, I’ve sent a few letters to
you in the past. I sent one just a few
months ago, which was intercepted by your haughty IR department which penned a
self-congratulatory response. This time
I’ve chosen to post on Blogger (interesting that Microsoft doesn’t have
anything like that, isn’t it?).
Last night I was reading Miguel Helft’s quite good
article on YouTube in the August 12th issue of Fortune. As I read it, I couldn’t help but wonder what
would have happened if Microsoft, instead of Google, had acquired YouTube. Sadly, my conclusion is that YouTube have
faded away, after becoming another goodwill impairment charge for Microsoft and
perhaps then limping along like Digg. Instead it’s becoming a juggernaut under
Google’s ownership.
Why is it that other entities have found a way to grow
and expand over the last decade, while Microsoft has settled for a GDP growth
rate? Has Microsoft become sclerotic? Does it have warring fiefdoms like General
Motors in 2005? Is it an indecisive, directionless IBM pre-Gerstner?
I know this: if I had taken one third of my original
investment in Microsoft and invested in Google, and another third and invested
in Apple, I’d be far richer today. Here
are some ideas for your consideration:
1.
Return to stock options. I once worked for a
supplier to Microsoft. We marveled at your
company. If we missed a delivery date in
Taiwan, or had a service failure in Scotland, people in Redmond frequently knew
before any of us at our home office.
Dedicated, committed and motivated Microsoft employees were becoming multi-millionaires
in their thirties from their stock options.
We were amazed at the speed and strength of your competitive response to
Netscape, unleashing IE in seemingly no time.
Mr. Gates’ friend Mr. Buffet
helped to convince him to stop being generous with options. While I understand the argument that options
are an expense, the situations aren’t alike. Mr. Buffet (and I’m a big Buffet
fan) invests in mature, cash-generating businesses with wide competitive moats:
Coca Cola, Jordan’s Furniture, General Re and other giant reinsurers, Burlington
Northern Santa Fe railroad, as well as juicy preferred stocks from GE, Goldman
Sachs and Bank of America. He structures
large cash incentives for the management teams but no stock compensation. That makes sense in slow growth,
cash-harvesting businesses. But
Microsoft’s competitors are still generating double-digit growth.
While the mandarins at the FASB
and SEC require companies to account for options as a current period expense, one
thing we know for certain is that options only get exercised if the price of
the underlying stock goes up. I’ll happily accept increased stock option
expense in exchange for a higher stock price.
2.
Move faster – a lot faster. You had the surface technology for years,
only to watch Apple build a giant business with the IPad. Your competitive
product: The Surface - which isn’t bad-was launched with arguably the worst
major ad budget TV campaign ever. People
dancing around a board meeting table slapping tablets? I trust everyone near that project was fired
long ago. When will the next Surface come out?
And the one after that? My guess
is that whatever your answer, it is too long.
Mobile computing was an obvious
trend, but your response was years in coming.
When it finally arrived the Windows phone is pretty good. But where is Skype? I distinctly remember the
first time I saw a Facetime call on an IPhone.
Dazzling! But Windows phones
still ship without Skype? And the cool
new Nokia XXX won’t be available on Verizon for months? How are those things
possible? Beginning in September have
all Windows phones ship with Skype as a button.
Ready to use with a click. You
have the power to make that happen don’t you?
Facebook was built on weekly
releases. Unheard of at the time-but
they made it work. You should help/require Nokia and HTC to release updates at
least quarterly, with larger screen, Skype-out-of-the-box versions for this
Christmas.
3.
Buy back less stock, spend more internally. How much stock has been repurchased over the
last ten years? The price still hasn’t
caught up with the 1999 high, and is about the same it was in 2008. If you have cash outside the U.S. and don’t
want to trigger U.S. tax, put R&D and developers there. There are star coders everywhere in the world
now.
4.
Release cool new versions of Skype
continuously. Investors are generally
surprised that you haven’t screwed Skype up (yet). Where are the cool new features? Where is the buzz? I’ll bet the Skype team has hundreds of ideas
on how to make it a better product. Give
them some money and some serious release deadlines.
5.
Tackle audio.
I know, Zune was a disaster. But
so is dealing with regimented, inflexible ITunes. How easy is it to load music from a CD to a
Surface and then sync with a Windows phone? If it takes more than 20 seconds
and requires passing through endless security and license clicks, its too
complicated and needs simplifying.
6.
Frigging show up. Are you so above us serf shareholders that
you don’t have to attend quarterly earnings calls? I know that many analysts ask dumb-ass questions. Trust me I know. Niggling questions about basis point changes
in tax rates don’t inform the majority of shareholders. But you control the mike at the start and can
talk about anything you want. Tell us
what is going on and what we can expect.
Comments
I would welcome Mr. Gates back into a full-time role at MSFT. Although I do think his efforts to save children from dying of malaria, etc. is more than admirable.
I can't speak to public ed-way out of my area of expertise.